I think you're right. It does feel like Bernie has maxed out his supporter base to this point. I don't think he will have any problem getting his die hard supporters to turn out in the primary elections. But he has already lost a good chunk of supporters that were 50/50 on him to Warren. And I don't see an avenue for him to suddenly gain them back.
For whatever reason, the campaign of Bernie Sanders seems to cap out at roughly 20-25% of the polling. If Elizabeth Warren wasn't running, Sanders would be in way better shape. He would actually most likely be the far and away frontrunner. But since they are so similar in message and she is doing a better good than him this election cycle of ramping up momentum, I don't see a path for him to win.
Warren or Sanders would be better served if one of them dropped out and joined the other campaign as the VP ticket.
The lineup for the 2nd Democratic Presidential Primary Debate is set. The field remains quite crowded with 20 candidates. Really the only change from the first debate to the second is Eric Swalwell has dropped out of the race and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock qualified and will take his place.
It will still be a 2-parter, with the first happening on July 30th on CNN and will include:
Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Klobuchar, Bullock, Delaney, Hickenlooper, Williamson and Ryan.
The second part is the next night on July 31st, also on CNN, and it includes all the other candidates:
Biden, Harris, Booker, Yang, Gabbard, Bennet, de Blasio, Castro, Gillibrand and Inslee.
At first glance, I think a majority of the fireworks and headlines will come from the 2nd night. If the assumption is another iteration of Kamala v Biden. And it will be interesting to see if Yang can redeem himself.
But this debate is a make or break for all but five candidates, as to qualify for the 3rd debate the thresholds double. And only Biden, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg and Sanders currently meet those qualifications.
That said, the first night does have some interesting story lines. Bullock is the newcomer and we will see if Bernie or Warren can differentiate themselves from each other further. Same goes for Buttigieg. Wonder if he can build his recent fundraising momentum.
This forum is to discuss what you expect from the 2nd debate and how you think all the candidates did once the debate is over.
Both Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Kamala Harris want to change the tax code in a progressive way. But its interesting to note the strategy differences between the two.
Simply put, Warren wants to raise taxes on the wealthiest individuals, businesses and corporations. And Harris wants to cut tax rates for low to moderate income earners.
Both have the same goal in mind, to help out the middle and lower class by decreasing their tax burden. But the fundamentally different approach they are offering I think highlights the difference in overall economic ideology between the two. And really for the Democratic party in general.
Its my take that Harris' approach is far more centrist. Seems she takes the view the system just needs tweaking, to introduce some tax relief for those that don't make a lot as is, and in that way you will see some positive boost to the economy and help those already struggling while not really disrupting the status quo.
But that strategy is less progressive, as it doesn't get to the heart of the issue, as Warren sees it. She thinks that between tax loopholes and current tax rates on the top earners, the wealthy get away without paying anywhere close to their fair share, and the country as a whole would benefit greatly from the wealthy paying even more.
Its likely both candidates would support crossover legislation that includes both strategies. But that's not what they themselves propose, as Presidential candidates, to change the tax code.
Which approach do you find better, if either? Both are what you can label 'progressive' as they both involve cuts for the non-wealthy and/or raises on the wealthy.. either way a further shift of the tax burden to those that earn the most. Think Warren or Harris has the best idea? And which do you think has the best chance of implementing their vision, working with the GOP once elected across the aisle?
I would say Harris' ideas are more of the same and Warren's would create more change. But I am weary of creating more tax revenue when perhaps the biggest issue with this country is how we allocate and spend it once it's collected.
A good read on all this that inspired this thread - Inside The Warren Vs. Harris Battle Over Tax Progressivity
We have a crowded debate stage for the 20 candidates campaigning to be the Democratic nominee to run against Trump in the 2020 Presidential election. This forum will serve as a way for us to talk about how you think all the candidates did after the first two rounds of debates.
Our first debate is in Miami, FL and broken up to happen on two different nights - June 26th and June 27th.
On June 26th:
Elizabeth Warren, Beto O'Rourke, Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Tusli Gabbard, Jay Inslee, Amy Kloubuchar, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney and Tim Ryan.
On June 27th:
Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Micheal Bennet, Marienne Williamson, Eric Swalwell, Andrew Yang and John Hickenlooper.
The second debate will happen in Detroit, MI and be broken up as well into two nights - July 30th and July 31st.
Will post that roster when released. Some candidates might call a quits by then and the rosters are also decided based on polling results to try and even out the draw either night's viewing might receive.
Feel free to post how you expect any of the four debates to go, who you are looking forward to the most, which topics you care most about, anything really.
Biden and Sanders on the same stage should be very interesting and I think will greatly effect their polling numbers directly after. I'm hoping for a name not in the top 3 to emerge as a real challenger and impress. Someone like Tulsi Gabbard or Andrew Yang. Also very curious to see if Buttigieg or Harris can make waves.
California Poll Bursts Kamala Harris’ 2020 Bubble — Doesn’t Even Crack Top 3 Candidates in Home State
As of 6/13/19 anyways California does show a pretty wide open race. That's encouraging to me.
Biden - 22%
Warren - 18%
Sanders - 17%
Harris - 13%
Buttigieg - 10%
So really any of those 5 candidates could win California's vote in the primary. Maybe even someone not in the top 5, though I doubt it. I think one of these 5 will be the nominee.
Warren is moving up fast in lots of polls to a solid 2nd. Harris is polling better in CA than the national avg.. this first debate could make these numbers move quite a lot.
I don't think Biden takes California. When it comes to issues that concern Cali specifically, I think Warren or Sanders are the best representatives. Warren being the best. Though my vote at the moment goes to either Warren or Buttigieg for what that's worth.
Beto's numbers are already starting to fall just a bit. He is polling at 3.6% now. I don't think he will outlast the first two rounds of debates.
What you see just before the first debates is Elizabeth Warren taking polling from both Biden and Sanders:
Biden - 32%, Sanders 15%, Warren 11.9%.
Outside of that everyone else is about the same from the original posting here, outside of maybe Yang who looks to be on an ever so slight rise - 0.8% to 1.1%. That would make him 8th in polling where he was 12th before.
5 are starting to pull away I would say as we near the first debates. Current polling:
Biden - 32%
Sanders - 15%
Warren - 11.9%
Harris - 7.1%
Buttigieg - 7%
O'Rourke and Booker polling at about 2-3% And the rest 1% or lower. I think we will know a ton about who is for real or not by the end of the first debates. Expecting many to drop out if they don't see dramatic promise in polling a few days or weeks after the first debates.
Maybe by the 2nd round of debates in July there will only be 10 candidates or so on the stage. After that second round though, for sure it will be down to just the top 5-8 max.
You do have Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris and Buttigieg polling in the top 5 right now, according to RealClearPolitics. Same for FiveThirtyEight.
I do see Biden and Sanders making it into what you could call the final four. My two candidates I'm most interested in don't have the best shots but I am hoping they make it as the other two - Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard. Currently they are 11th and 12th in polling. But with things just about to kick off, I don't see either of them turning it in early. I think they outlast at the minimum half the crowd.
I think Buttigieg has staying power. But I do not think Booker or O'Rourke will be around in the end. Have my doubts about Harris as well. I think they will bow out fairly early compared to Biden and Sanders. But Warren, yeah she could be there close to the end.
That said, Gillibrand, Inslee, Ryan, Delaney, Hickenlooper and anyone else not even polling in the top 16 right now.. I think they will all be the first to go.
This should be a crazy election cycle at least for the Dems primary race. The count is now 22 candidates and like you said, will probably increase shortly. We will see many candidates drop like flies in the coming months and I agree its crucial they get this debate stage issue right.
Luckily the internet is bigger than ever so these candidates don't have to rely solely on TV appearances and screen time, but its still the best way to get your campaign message out there to the masses so I sincerely hope the moderators leave their pre-determined biases at the door.
Colorado and Arizona have been on my radar for a while. I wonder how the economic disparity in Florida should effect its ranking. I've heard for a long time its a state of the have and have not's. Anyone here retire or planning on retiring in Florida have an opinion on this?