Displaying 1 - 10 of 261 Forum Posts1 2 3 4 5 Next
  • Aug 29, 2019 03:18 PM
    Last: 4d
    562

    Only ten of the nearly twenty candidates still running for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2020 have qualified for the third Presidential Debate, delivering a likely fatal blow to nearly half the field with one fell swoop. ABC announced the candidates who met their requirements to make the debate stage and also announced that the debate will only be held on one night since only ten candidates will be participating.

    The ten candidates that made the debate stage are:

    • Joe Biden
    • Cory Booker
    • Pete Buttigieg
    • Juli├ín Castro
    • Kamala Harris
    • Amy Klobuchar
    • Beto O'Rourke
    • Bernie Sanders
    • Elizabeth Warren
    • Andrew Yang

    Notable candidates who didn't qualify are Bill de Blasio, Michael Bennet, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard.

    I predict that the candidates who didn't qualify, with maybe the exception of Steyer (who has unlimited money to throw into the race), will drop out of the race in the next one to two months.

    I think Yang, Castro, O'Rourke, Klobuchar, Booker, and maybe Buttigieg will follow, leaving a field of Biden, Harris, Sanders, and Warren to really duke it out for the nomination.

    2016 showed me that literally anything can happen when it comes to politics, but if I were a betting man, I'd bet that those four will be going deep into the primary season and any one of them could realistically win the Democratic nomination in 2020.

    Does anyone else agree or do you think I'm too quickly and easily pushing aside candidates like O'Rourke and Buttigieg?

  • May 14, 2019 11:48 AM
    Last: 20d
    1.6k

    I have to admit that I'm surprised only a few Democratic candidates have dropped out so far. I'm guessing that at least a few more who don't make the second Democratic debate will step aside in the not too distant future, but it's still amazing that so many people who appear to have zero chance at all are still in the race.

    We all know what the likely scenario is. Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Harris seem to be in it for the long haul. Maybe O'Rourke, Buttigieg, and Yang stand a fighting chance, but I'm far more bearish about those three. The remaining ten plus candidates, at least in my humble opinion, don't stand a chance.

  • Jul 23, 2019 09:36 AM
    Last: 20d
    325
    JFoster Wrote: I think this will only allow this same trouble to carry over into the 2020 election. Anyone else agree? Or would pushing a new system into action lead to unknown vulnerabilities in the next election?

    It's crazy that officials not just in Iowa, but so many other states, seem to be digging their heads in the sand and pretending that nothings wrong. Secure elections shouldn't be a partisan issue. If we lose faith in the security of our electoral system then all bets are off.

  • Aug 14, 2019 07:54 PM
    Last: 1mo
    254
    JFoster Wrote: Wouldn't that be nice? These states are getting a lot of push back from the opposition, namely the GOP. When either side opposes movements that give more power back to the popular vote, it only indicates to me how scared politicians are to actually let the American people decide for themselves.

    I find it odd how the GOP would cry foul about Californians helping turn Nevada a purple/lean blue state, but happily reap the benefits of college educated (and very often left-of-center) residents fleeing perennial swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin without a peep. It's a bit hypocritical if you ask me.

    My thoughts are that people tend to migrate to a new location with their pocketbooks being their primary concern. Politics, if it plays any part in their decision making process, is likely relatively low on their list of concerns.

    I wonder what someone who has a masters degree in pretty much anything other than computer sciences thinks about living in San Francisco or the entire bay area. They have a masters degree, maybe even make decent money at a relatively stable job, but have to spend a fortune to be able to afford a one bedroom apartment because the tech industry has priced everyone that doesn't work for Facebook or Google out. Moving to Nevada and being able to afford a three bedroom house sounds a heck of a lot better than that studio apartment your masters degree gets you in the bay area!

  • Jul 01, 2019 12:47 PM
    Last: 2mo
    363

    If the 2016 Presidential election taught Americans anything, it's that the states play a pivotal roll in choosing the President and recent polarization and realignment among the political parties has turned the vast majority of states into the "solidly Republican" or "solidly Democratic" camps. Or so we thought.

    Recent demographic changes sweeping throughout the south and southwest parts of the country are giving demographers and political scientists plenty of things to talk about. In Texas, the Latino population is predicted to exceed the non-Hispanic white population by 2022 and Arizona isn't very far behind.

    While it's true that a persons race isn't the only predicting factor for how they will vote, it is certainly a big one. States with large minority populations consistently vote for the Democratic Party while states with large non-Hispanic white populations consistently vote for the Republican Party. Therefore, it's not a big leap to conclude that major demographic changes like the ones were witnessing in the south will play a major role in realigning American politics for the next generation.

    A lot (and I mean a LOT) will happen between now and the 2020 election that will determine the eventual winner of the 2020 election, but don't be surprised on election night if a state that has been reliably Republican for many years suddenly swings to the Democrats. The chances of it being Texas or Arizona are slim, but not impossible.

  • Jun 19, 2019 05:13 PM
    Last: 3mo
    446

    I'm a fan of "Mayor Pete," but I just don't see the Democratic Party going for a relatively unknown figure to go head to head against President Trump in 2020. Trump's election showed us that an outsider can win the White House, but Trump was anything but unknown to the electorate.

    I just have a really hard time believing that a mayor of a small town in a deep red state will be Democrats saving grace in 2020. I've certainly been proven wrong many times before, so take my opinion with a grain of salt!

  • Jun 20, 2019 05:12 PM
    Last: 3mo
    434

    The cynic is me always questions why so much weight is put on California in the Democratic primary. Sure, they have the greatest numbers...by far...but 2016 reminded all of us that more votes doesn't necessarily mean you win.

    That's why I think the Democrats running for President need to be focusing much more on what voters in swing states are saying. California will vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is, but that isn't necessarily true for Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

  • Jun 25, 2019 04:38 PM
    Last: 3mo
    344

    I'm always hesitant to put too much weight on any one candidates tax "promises" considering those promises are almost certainly never going to become law.

    With that said, as a pragmatist, I think that Senator Harris's plan is a solid starting point. The current system is way too skewed towards benefiting the wealthy at the expense of the working poor, but Harris's proposal is at least a step in the right direction.

  • Jun 24, 2019 05:56 AM
    Last: 3mo
    1.8k

    I agree that the polls probably aren't going to change too much after the first debate unless one of the major candidates has a great (or terrible) night.

    The first debate does give the lesser known candidates a chance to be heard on the national stage, but I wonder if the sheer number of them will make it difficult for any of them to really have a breakout night and crack the top 5.

  • May 30, 2019 06:26 PM
    Last: 3mo
    591
    Honestly, I'm surprised it's not already a "thing" for the more well off. The idea of permanently traveling sounds like a dream to me!