The chances of a brokered convention is now very low with Elizabeth Warren suspending her campaign. While Warren has not endorsed a candidate and is holding her 65 + delegates for the time being, at some point before the convention or the first round of voting she will have to release them to either Sanders or Biden or both. Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Bloomberg have already endorsed Biden so their yet to be assigned and vetted delegates will most likely vote for Biden in the first round, but legally will be able to vote for anyone.
The only other outstanding delegates are Tulsi Gabbard's 2 delegates from American Samoa, and they won't amount to anything unless the votes for Sanders and Biden are exactly tied. She could conceivably get a few more as the remaining territories and states vote. Republicans can cross over in many states and territories to vote for her if they choose to disrupt the process, but getting the 15 percent threshold is difficult.
The candidate who gets 1991 votes (a majority) in the first ballot at the convention becomes the Democratic nominee. The way the remaining primaries are stacking up, it appears that Joe Biden is the favorite as long as he doesn't screw up in the last two debates -- March 15th and another in April (no date yet set).
Agreed, chances are low. Plus Bloomberg's delegates likely go to Biden too. I didn't consider all those pledged delegates earned by everyone not named Bernie or Biden going to them eventually.. makes it an even less likely scenario that Bernie wins this nomination.
You're right. Biden will have to gaffe pretty hard at the debates or something unexpected for him to not win at this point. There are currently 122 or so delegates on the table from all other candidates and that number will increase a little as results trickle in from Super Tuesday states. Unless Warren surprises and goes 100% Bernie (which I don't think will happen) Biden could get 100% of those delegates.
That means Bernie needs to outperform Biden handily in the next month or two of primaries. That's going to be a bridge too far for him I think.
Bernie's exit is all but inevitable after poor showings in Arizona, Illinois, and Florida. Moderate Democrats should be patient and give him some time to come to that decision on his own and not be perceived as pushing him out because they will need to be united come November.
This primary has been far less vitriolic than 2016, so I have a feeling it won't take as long to heal the divisions this time around, but who knows?