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Should Bernie Be Worried About His Razor Thin Win Margin in NH?

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  • justin412
    2020-02-12 12:24:57 PM
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    Senator Sanders won the Democratic Primary in New Hampshire for a second time, but his 2020 margin of victory over Pete Buttigieg was less than 4,000 votes compared to nearly 57,000 over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 primary. While a win is a win, I can't help but think this should be a major cause of concern for the Senator as he looks forward to a long primary season.

    New Hampshire was supposed to be prime territory for Senator Sanders. It's next door to his home state of Vermont and, while it may not lean as left as Vermont at the state level, the Democratic Party in the state has certainly drifted leftward the past number of years. Or so I thought.

    Bernie may have won the most votes in New Hampshire of any one candidate, but the establishment candidates - Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Joe Biden - collectively received more than twice as many votes as him. That's not just the polar opposite of 2016, it's the polar opposite and then some. In other words, Bernie very well may have lost by 80,000 votes if there was only one instead of three establishment candidates in the race.

    Perhaps I'm overthinking the results and should give Bernie props for another win in New Hampshire, but something seems different this year. He received more than 77,000 fewer votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. That, at least to me, shows that his win in 2016 had far more to do with many people in New Hampshire being against Hillary Clinton than being for Bernie.

  • Richard1022
    2020-02-12 07:57:45 PM
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    I am surprised that I'm not hearing more about the fact that Buttigieg got just as many delegates as Bernie. It's technically true that Bernie won the night, but when it comes to delegates, Buttigieg did about the best he could have possibly imagined.

    Bernie put on a really good face, but I have to imagine he is disappointed with the results from the NH primary. He absolutely dominated in that state in 2016 and got tens of thousands of fewer votes compared to that primary. That has to worry him, even if he won't admit it.

  • bryce28
    2020-02-12 08:35:49 PM
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    Yeah he should be worried. Momentum for him right now is pretty tenuous. You can't say he is the clear frontrunner. Only that he barely won the first two states' popular vote and just barely one NH outright. And he has no lead over Pete in the delegate count. Bernie I'm sure is happy to be clearly outpacing Biden so far in the race. But there is a reason why he is so on the defensive and attacking Buttigieg, that's his neck and neck competition.

    Looking forward to South Carolina and ultimately Super Tuesday to see how this all shakes out. I guess I expect Biden to come up much better in SC, but who knows at this point. Polling shows Biden with a sizable lead of 27.7% for SC vs Sanders at 17%, Steyer curiously enough at 10%, Warren at 7.9%, Bloomberg at 7.8% and Pete only at 6.6%.

    But these first two primaries could shift a lot of momentum in others directions. Is Steyer's home state SC or something? Why is he higher in that poll?

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