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The all but inevitable impeachment of President Trump (which is very different than his conviction in the Senate) has gotten me thinking about how it will affect his chances in 2020. Let's just say, for the sake of argument, Donald Trump is impeached by the House and not convicted in the Senate. What happens next is what I'm starting to think about. So, if possible, I hope we can focus on that and not whether or not President Trump should be impeached and removed from office.
My personal opinion is impeachment will be a small, but not insignificant, net loss for the President. His base of supporters aren't going anywhere, but in order to win in 2020 he must keep the same coalition he built in 2016 and find ways to build on it. His popular vote margin was the third smallest in our nations history and his Electoral College margin ranked at 46th out of the 58th Presidential elections we've had. Since then, the three states that helped elect him - Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - have all turned blue. That should keep Trump up more at night than any impeachment hearing.
On the other hand, I can also see Trump's acquittal in the Senate (if that is what indeed happens) galvanizing his base and dejecting the left to the point of despair. Add in the very real possibility of a contentious Democratic Primary splitting the party in the same way it did in 2016 and all of a sudden Trump being impeached *could be* the best thing that happened to him.
So, I can honestly see it both ways. I can see impeachment galvanizing the left *and* the right. And that means that, no matter what happens in the impeachment of Donald Trump, the voters will be the final arbiters of his fate.
What do you think? Will impeachment help or hurt Trump moving forward?