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Can Texas Turn Blue in 2020?

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    Pundits and journalists across the political spectrum have been debating the possibility of Texas turning blue for years and every election comes and goes with Republicans maintaining a dominant hold on power at both the state and federal level. However, a closer look at voting trends the past decade do show a rapidly changing Texas that should give Republicans in the state a lot to keep awake at night over.

    More and more young people in Texas are turning voting age while, without trying to be insensitive, more and more older (and largely conservative) Texans are, well, only getting older. While it's true younger people have historically boycotted the voting booth, that trend does seem to be changing if the 2018 midterms were a harbinger of things to come. In that election, youth voter turnout tripled compared to the 2014 midterm election. If that trend continues into 2020 then Republicans will have a lot to be worried about.

    In the same breath, Donald Trump is a historically unpopular President that won Texas by the smallest margin since the 1996 Presidential election. And a whole lot of young voters have turned 18 since Trump was elected, making his margin for error precariously small.

    I'm not predicting that the Democratic candidate will win Texas in 2020. For starters, I learned my lesson regarding predictions in 2016. Secondly, there's just too many variables in play between now and voters head to the polls in 2020 to make any realistic prediction. But I will say that, at a minimum, 2020 has the potential to be quite an interesting year in Texas.

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    I would like to say that I'd be shocked if Texas turned blue in 2020, but crazier things have happened before. Texas used to be blue for a long time (although the Democratic Party was far more conservative back then) and even went for Jimmy Carter in 1976. They haven't gone blue since then, but if our short history shows us anything, it's that voting habits ebb and flow.
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    Texas is trending purple. Could become the ultimate swing state in some years. For now, I think it stays red. But I think there will come a time fairly soon, an election cycle or two away perhaps, where it flips. More and more Texans live in the major cities, and those counties (Dallas in Dallas County, San Antonio in Bexar County, Houston in Harris County and Austin in Travis County) all went blue in 2016.

    Tarrant County did not, which has Arlington and Fort Worth. Neither did Collin County, which has Plano.

    Odd to think that 4/5 biggest counties went blue, and 6 of the 8 most populated counties went blue, but the state as a whole still went red by some 800k votes. A vast majority of the rural counties voted in a sea of red:

    If Dems want to flip Texas in 2020, they need to focus on maintaining the counties they won in 2016 first of all, which is no small feat. And then its really as simple as flipping a handful of other counties.. Denton would be huge. They have 859,939 residents as of 2018.

    Go after then non-deep red counties like Denton, Brazos, Galveston and Montgomery and they have a shot. A realistic shot, especially since the population of Hispanics is ever growing in the state.

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    I was a registered Republican voting in Texas in 2016 but not in 2020... and no, I did not vote for Trump. This year I am in Oregon and after all the sh...enanigans our President has pulled this term, I am registering Democrat. Wish I could say I know what Texas will do, but I am hoping more people like me are waking up to how unethical Donald Trump is and how the Republican party needs a wakeup call to not support him any longer. #CountryOverParty