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Third Dem. Debate Dwindles Down Number of Realistic Contenders

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    Only ten of the nearly twenty candidates still running for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2020 have qualified for the third Presidential Debate, delivering a likely fatal blow to nearly half the field with one fell swoop. ABC announced the candidates who met their requirements to make the debate stage and also announced that the debate will only be held on one night since only ten candidates will be participating.

    The ten candidates that made the debate stage are:

    • Joe Biden
    • Cory Booker
    • Pete Buttigieg
    • Juli├ín Castro
    • Kamala Harris
    • Amy Klobuchar
    • Beto O'Rourke
    • Bernie Sanders
    • Elizabeth Warren
    • Andrew Yang

    Notable candidates who didn't qualify are Bill de Blasio, Michael Bennet, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard.

    I predict that the candidates who didn't qualify, with maybe the exception of Steyer (who has unlimited money to throw into the race), will drop out of the race in the next one to two months.

    I think Yang, Castro, O'Rourke, Klobuchar, Booker, and maybe Buttigieg will follow, leaving a field of Biden, Harris, Sanders, and Warren to really duke it out for the nomination.

    2016 showed me that literally anything can happen when it comes to politics, but if I were a betting man, I'd bet that those four will be going deep into the primary season and any one of them could realistically win the Democratic nomination in 2020.

    Does anyone else agree or do you think I'm too quickly and easily pushing aside candidates like O'Rourke and Buttigieg?

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    I agree on the four but would add Buttigieg to the running. I don't think he will win necessarily, but I think he can hang on to the same polling results or close to that Harris gets, enough to make the final primaries and be on the state ballots. That's my guess is if it does come down to more than 3 on the ballots next year, it'll be Harris and Buttigieg as the other two.

    I don't think Booker or O'Rourke will have the support to qualify for the debates down the road.

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    I'm really interested to see if Warren and Sanders team up and have a coordinated "attack" (for lack of a better word) against Biden or if they spend more time going after each other.

    My guess is that Warren will probably do a little bit of both. She will want to distinguish herself from Bernie, but also show that she's willing to directly take on Biden, as well.

    Should be a really interesting night.

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    Interesting to see the latest polling heading into the 4th debates:

    Biden - 26.1%
    Warren - 24.4%
    Sanders - 16.7%
    Buttigieg - 5.6%
    Harris - 4.7%
    Yang - 3.3%
    O'Rourke - 2.1%

    Everyone else is 1% or lower and in my opinion completely out of it. In all seriousness, Beto is out too. Yang and Harris are the outsiders that would need serious momentum in the next few months to have any chance.

    But I am surprised Pete jumped Harris. He is still a long shot but I wouldn't count him out. With Biden making gaffe after gaffe and for those that don't like how progressive Sanders or Warren are, Mayor Pete will get seemingly all those Dem votes and could make a run.

    But lastly, the most interesting move in the polls is Warren. She is clearly taking Sanders' supporters away from him and who knows, in a few weeks could be polling ahead of Biden. If the voting happened today, she actually very likely could be the nominee.

    I would say at this moment Warren is the best positioned. I just don't have any faith Biden can hold it together for the next few months.