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Between 2008 and 2017 over 450,000 Californians moved to Nevada, which made California the largest source of new residents to the swing state. One main cause is high rising housing prices, namely in the Bay Area and Southern California that has Cali transplants opting for cheaper prices in Reno and Las Vegas. So what kind of impact does this have on Nevada politics, especially pertaining to the coming presidential election?
While not all of the former Californians are left-leaning or even vote for that matter, their exodus has certainly accelerated a move to left in the state. According to political strategists and observers, it has helped Democrats take control of state government for the first time in a generation, greasing the wheels for a number of progressive policies.
"Already, the results have been palpable. In recent months, lawmakers raised the minimum wage, put in place higher green energy standards, guaranteed collective bargaining rights for state employees and enacted new gun control measures (some of which don’t go into effect until next year) — making the state a little more like its neighbor to the west."
According to data from Nevada's Secretary of State, statewide party voter registration switched from a Republican advantage of 1,000 voters in 2004 to a Democratic Advantage of more than 70,000 in 2019. Yet, the fastest growing group is voters registered without party preference. This could mean a lot for a state that has voted Republican for the past six presidential elections.
"Democrats swept all of the most crucial races in last year’s midterm elections, winning the governor’s office, both houses of the legislature, and their second U.S. Senate seat. They’re in control of all the levers of state government for the first time since 1992."
The influx could be a big advantage for Democratic candidates in the 2020 Presidential Election, especially for California Senator Kamala Harris - who has put a lot of special focus on Nevada. Her campaign alone has visited Nevada 8 times, which is more than any other top contender in the race. It's definitely something to think about.
Either way, the changing of Nevada's demographics will certainly ripple-out into 2020's key Democratic caucuses which is the third contest of the presidential primary campaign.
I would definitely like to hear other opinions on this. I also wonder if there are any other states experiencing such a high amount of migration from other states. My money would be on Texas ... and California migrants, yet again.