Forum Thread

California's Impact on the 2020 Elections Will Be Massive

Reply to ThreadDisplaying 5 Posts
  • Are you sure you want to delete this post?
        

    Reading this LA Times article about the impact of California on the 2020 elections and this part in particular stuck out to me:

    For it is the trademark issues and values of California — immigration, healthcare, trade and the environment — that to a large extent will drive this presidential contest.

    The notion of a national race being a referendum on one state’s values — or, in another conception, a struggle between the worldview of California and the worldview of President Trump — could only emerge in a political environment where urgent economic and foreign policy issues won’t dominate as they ordinarily do.

    To the extent that economic issues are in play, they are poverty, globalization and income inequality, all central to the California zeitgeist.


    It's no real secret California will go blue in the 2020 Presidential elections. So this conversation isn't really a question of 'can Trump win CA electoral points?'. Think the answer to that is no.

    The California State Senate race is more interesting. Currently CA's State Senate consists of 53 Republicans to 45 Democrats and 2 independents as of the 2018 elections. So if the 2020 elections are a referendum on Trump, Democrats will have to take back at least 3 State Senate seats of the 33 on the 2020 ballot to regain majority control.

    2020 elections won't include Senate races for California, so Dianne Fienstein and Kamala Harris will remain (unless Harris wins the presidency of course).

    Zoomed out, the point is California is really on the exact opposite extreme to Donald Trump on many of the key issues that will be talked about ad nauseum between now and even beyond the 2020 elections. You could say, and the article above clearly does, that California is front and center representation of the entire Democratic party. Or at least the biggest player.

    Makes sense. Population wise they are enormous. They award by far the most electoral college points (55). And now that California is a early primary state, Democratic presidential candidates will absolutely have to take a stance and campaign on issues central to the concern of Californians. Especially early on.

    California does have 2 local candidates running for President in Senator Kamala Harris and Rep. Eric Swalwell. Harris having the much higher chance to make it deep into the run.

    So clearly Californians will have a massive megaphone in the form of the Democratic party going into the 2020 presidential race. With either a homegrown candidate for POTUS or one that the most populated state in the union feels represents them the best.

    And if all the 2020 elections really come down to Trump vs California worldviews, I would expect the State Senate to flip blue as well. Watch out for who California picks in the Dem primaries. Might be the best indication of who will be the next president elect.

  • Are you sure you want to delete this post?
        

    California Poll Bursts Kamala Harris’ 2020 Bubble — Doesn’t Even Crack Top 3 Candidates in Home State

    As of 6/13/19 anyways California does show a pretty wide open race. That's encouraging to me.

    Biden - 22%
    Warren - 18%
    Sanders - 17%
    Harris - 13%
    Buttigieg - 10%

    So really any of those 5 candidates could win California's vote in the primary. Maybe even someone not in the top 5, though I doubt it. I think one of these 5 will be the nominee.

    Warren is moving up fast in lots of polls to a solid 2nd. Harris is polling better in CA than the national avg.. this first debate could make these numbers move quite a lot.

    I don't think Biden takes California. When it comes to issues that concern Cali specifically, I think Warren or Sanders are the best representatives. Warren being the best. Though my vote at the moment goes to either Warren or Buttigieg for what that's worth.

  • Are you sure you want to delete this post?
        
    RealClearPolitics is showing the avg of two different California polls right there. Has it Biden then Sanders, Harris, Warren and Buttigieg in that order. Should get interesting the week after the first debates. Bout to find out how much pull California has.
  • Are you sure you want to delete this post?
        

    The cynic is me always questions why so much weight is put on California in the Democratic primary. Sure, they have the greatest numbers...by far...but 2016 reminded all of us that more votes doesn't necessarily mean you win.

    That's why I think the Democrats running for President need to be focusing much more on what voters in swing states are saying. California will vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is, but that isn't necessarily true for Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

  • Are you sure you want to delete this post?
        

    I can see it going a few ways in California, but I personally have a feeling that Biden will win by 3-4% with Warren and Sanders splitting the progressive vote. It's a do-or-die state for Senator Harris, but I just have a hard time thinking that she'll wind up doing that well even with it being her home state. Presidential politics are a whole lot different than state politics.

    I've said it before, but I think we will be reminded of it once votes actually start being counted - the way Democrats divvy up the votes only helps someone like Biden because Warren and Sanders will dilute the "power" of the progressives in the party by splitting their vote. That may not necessarily be that bad of a thing though because, while left leaning progressives make up a decent (and vocal) minority of the Democratic party, they are certainly a minority in the overall country.