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Reading this LA Times article about the impact of California on the 2020 elections and this part in particular stuck out to me:
For it is the trademark issues and values of California — immigration, healthcare, trade and the environment — that to a large extent will drive this presidential contest.
The notion of a national race being a referendum on one state’s values — or, in another conception, a struggle between the worldview of California and the worldview of President Trump — could only emerge in a political environment where urgent economic and foreign policy issues won’t dominate as they ordinarily do.
To the extent that economic issues are in play, they are poverty, globalization and income inequality, all central to the California zeitgeist.
It's no real secret California will go blue in the 2020 Presidential elections. So this conversation isn't really a question of 'can Trump win CA electoral points?'. Think the answer to that is no.
The California State Senate race is more interesting. Currently CA's State Senate consists of 53 Republicans to 45 Democrats and 2 independents as of the 2018 elections. So if the 2020 elections are a referendum on Trump, Democrats will have to take back at least 3 State Senate seats of the 33 on the 2020 ballot to regain majority control.
2020 elections won't include Senate races for California, so Dianne Fienstein and Kamala Harris will remain (unless Harris wins the presidency of course).
Zoomed out, the point is California is really on the exact opposite extreme to Donald Trump on many of the key issues that will be talked about ad nauseum between now and even beyond the 2020 elections. You could say, and the article above clearly does, that California is front and center representation of the entire Democratic party. Or at least the biggest player.
Makes sense. Population wise they are enormous. They award by far the most electoral college points (55). And now that California is a early primary state, Democratic presidential candidates will absolutely have to take a stance and campaign on issues central to the concern of Californians. Especially early on.
California does have 2 local candidates running for President in Senator Kamala Harris and Rep. Eric Swalwell. Harris having the much higher chance to make it deep into the run.
So clearly Californians will have a massive megaphone in the form of the Democratic party going into the 2020 presidential race. With either a homegrown candidate for POTUS or one that the most populated state in the union feels represents them the best.
And if all the 2020 elections really come down to Trump vs California worldviews, I would expect the State Senate to flip blue as well. Watch out for who California picks in the Dem primaries. Might be the best indication of who will be the next president elect.