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How Will New Wave of Abortion Laws Affect Voter Turnout in 2020?

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    There's no greater hot button issue in American politics today than that of abortion and a new wave of legislation in many Republican dominated states will all but guarantee the issue is going to play a pivotal role in the upcoming 2020 election season. It's an issue that has been rallying cry for many right-of-center politicians for decades, but many Republicans now believe the demise of nationwide legalized abortion is imminent and are passing laws in their state in the hopes that a newly solidified conservative majority on the Supreme Court will strike down Roe (technically Planned Parenthood v. Casey) once and for all.

    I am well aware there are passionate and well-meaning advocates on both sides of this issue, but I'm hoping that we can save the religious/moral debate for another site and instead focus on the political side of the issue, specifically how these new laws in Alabama, Georgia, Ohio, Kentucky, and Mississippi, with others soon to follow, will affect voter turnout in 2020.

    It's generally accepted as fact that abortion is one of the most important, if not the most important, issue for many conservative voters. These "one issue voters" tend to vote in every local, state, and federal election and have been doing so for years. Their decades long quest to overturn Roe is, at least in many observers eyes, on the verge of coming to fruition. That is undoubtedly welcome news for many anti-abortion advocates, but I can't help but think that a ruling against Roe will galvanize pro-choice advocates in the lead up to the 2020 election, especially in the swing states that will decide the President.

    We all learned Newton's Third Law in school: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. While his law covers motion, the same can be said about many other things in life. If anti-abortion advocates were to eventually succeed in striking down Roe then it only makes sense that pro-choice advocates will have a strong negative reaction. Whether that reaction will be strong enough to affect election results in 2020 is anyone's guess, but I have a feeling it will be.

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    I do think it will effect voter turnout. But my guess is it will just increase voter participation and not necessarily change or effect the outcome, at least when it comes to the Presidential election. Same won't be true for the state to state congressional elections. I do think those will be greatly effected.

    But I think you outlined the logic as to why the Presidential race won't be tipped one way or the other, just from this single issue. Its because it feels to me those FOR and AGAINST these changes to abortion laws (and where the country is headed on the issue) are equal in representation across the country.

    So.. higher turnout in numbers. But in essence they will cancel each other vote. Just a guess though. Maybe I am buying into the narrative too much of just exactly how equally divided we are as a country. But when it comes to the electoral college divisions and how that translates into votes, I think its a pretty close 50/50 division, on this issue and a few others.