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Polling numbers for the Democratic Presidential Primary race is the best indication we have to tell how well the candidates are doing, and who has the best chance to win. And with 20+ candidates already announced and possibly more to enter and drop out regularly until the main primary election, its worth looking at the numbers as they are now and where we think they will be headed over the course of the campaign season.
Its also important to note where this information is coming from, as not all polls are created equal. For the sake of this forum and in an effort to keep things as unbiased as possible, I'll be showing numbers from RealClearPolitics and I'll just provide the link to FiveThirtyEight polling for an additional reference.
Real Clear Politics shows aggregate data from all the major polls and also shows the average of all the collective polling data. 538 does aggregate poll data from slightly different sources, though they do not average them so its less helpful here.
Current polling snapshot from Real Clear Politics:
Joe Biden - 39.8%
Bernie Sanders - 16.3%
Elizabeth Warren - 8.3%
Kamala Harris - 7.7%
Pete Buttigieg - 6.8%
Beto O'Rourke - 4.2%
Cory Booker - 2.3%
Amy Klobuchar - 1.3%
Julian Castro - 1.0%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 0.8%
Tulsi Gabbard - 0.8%
Andrew Yang - 0.8%
Jay Inslee - 0.7%
Tim Ryan - 0.5%
John Delaney - 0.3%
John Hickenlooper - 0.2%
The other candidates not in the top 16 for polling are: Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Wayne Messam, Seth Moulton, Eric Swalwell and Marianne Williamson. Currently, that info courtesy of CNN.
So now you get a clear picture of everyone running and where the current standings are in the polls. Clearly Biden has a commanding early polling lead. But keep in mind, we haven't even had our first debate yet. So expect these numbers to change quite a bit over the coming months.
Begs the question, where do you think this race is headed? How much do you think this current snapshot will change once campaign season really begins? Can Biden hold and grow his dominant support or will someone seriously challenge him for the Democratic ticket?
I have two predictions, one based off of what I expect to happen, taking out emotions. And the other on what I want to happen, understanding what is reasonable:
1) Obvious - early polling doesn't change much at all and the party picks Biden. And he chooses the most popular female candidate as his VP pick.
2) Biden gaffes too many times and slips down in the polls and you see a 3-4 race at the finish line between Biden, Bernie, Buttigieg and Gabbard. Of the 2 more unknowns I just have a feeling they have the most staying power and will shine the best under the debate stage lights.
What are your predictions of how the polls will change leading up to the Democratic Presidential Primaries?