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Democratic Presidential Primaries - Current Polls and Predictions

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  • J.K.Logic
    2019-05-15 01:55:41 PM
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    Polling numbers for the Democratic Presidential Primary race is the best indication we have to tell how well the candidates are doing, and who has the best chance to win. And with 20+ candidates already announced and possibly more to enter and drop out regularly until the main primary election, its worth looking at the numbers as they are now and where we think they will be headed over the course of the campaign season.

    Its also important to note where this information is coming from, as not all polls are created equal. For the sake of this forum and in an effort to keep things as unbiased as possible, I'll be showing numbers from RealClearPolitics and I'll just provide the link to FiveThirtyEight polling for an additional reference.

    Real Clear Politics shows aggregate data from all the major polls and also shows the average of all the collective polling data. 538 does aggregate poll data from slightly different sources, though they do not average them so its less helpful here.

    Current polling snapshot from Real Clear Politics:

    Joe Biden - 39.8%
    Bernie Sanders - 16.3%
    Elizabeth Warren - 8.3%
    Kamala Harris - 7.7%
    Pete Buttigieg - 6.8%
    Beto O'Rourke - 4.2%
    Cory Booker - 2.3%
    Amy Klobuchar - 1.3%
    Julian Castro - 1.0%
    Kirsten Gillibrand - 0.8%
    Tulsi Gabbard - 0.8%
    Andrew Yang - 0.8%
    Jay Inslee - 0.7%
    Tim Ryan - 0.5%
    John Delaney - 0.3%
    John Hickenlooper - 0.2%

    The other candidates not in the top 16 for polling are: Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Wayne Messam, Seth Moulton, Eric Swalwell and Marianne Williamson. Currently, that info courtesy of CNN.

    So now you get a clear picture of everyone running and where the current standings are in the polls. Clearly Biden has a commanding early polling lead. But keep in mind, we haven't even had our first debate yet. So expect these numbers to change quite a bit over the coming months.

    Begs the question, where do you think this race is headed? How much do you think this current snapshot will change once campaign season really begins? Can Biden hold and grow his dominant support or will someone seriously challenge him for the Democratic ticket?

    I have two predictions, one based off of what I expect to happen, taking out emotions. And the other on what I want to happen, understanding what is reasonable:

    1) Obvious - early polling doesn't change much at all and the party picks Biden. And he chooses the most popular female candidate as his VP pick.

    2) Biden gaffes too many times and slips down in the polls and you see a 3-4 race at the finish line between Biden, Bernie, Buttigieg and Gabbard. Of the 2 more unknowns I just have a feeling they have the most staying power and will shine the best under the debate stage lights.

    What are your predictions of how the polls will change leading up to the Democratic Presidential Primaries?

  • JaredS
    2019-05-15 04:45:27 PM
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    I'm someone who questions Buttigieg's staying power and the skeptic in me tends to think the media is hyping him up just a little bit because he has a unique life story. I'd say the same thing for Beto O'Rourke. I understand that both men have a very loyal online following, but I can't help but question their viability on the national stage once the rubber hits the road.

    The two people I'll be paying a lot of attention to for awhile are Senators Warren and Harris. I think they are both eating into Senator Sanders current support and I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they start chipping away even more of his support as time goes on. I also can't help but feel bad for Senator Booker who has been laying the groundwork for his run for years only to be largely ignored for now.

    Biden is the obvious front runner and for now it's his race to lose, but we have a long, long way to go before the 2020 Democratic convention.

  • J.K.Logic
    2019-05-15 05:01:19 PM
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    JaredS Wrote:

    I'm someone who questions Buttigieg's staying power and the skeptic in me tends to think the media is hyping him up just a little bit because he has a unique life story. I'd say the same thing for Beto O'Rourke.

    I agree with you on Beto. Being from Texas, I have been largely disappointed with his tendency to talk in platitudes. I think maybe now more than ever you can't just talk like a prototypical, robotic politician and hope to make waves. Too many choices. He lacks authenticity and I think a lot of people see that for what it is.

    Perhaps you are right on Buttigieg. I need to pay more attention to him. I have seen a few speeches but not much. Any exposure to him you recommend?

  • bryce28
    2019-06-19 05:38:46 PM
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    Beto's numbers are already starting to fall just a bit. He is polling at 3.6% now. I don't think he will outlast the first two rounds of debates.

    What you see just before the first debates is Elizabeth Warren taking polling from both Biden and Sanders:

    Biden - 32%, Sanders 15%, Warren 11.9%.

    Outside of that everyone else is about the same from the original posting here, outside of maybe Yang who looks to be on an ever so slight rise - 0.8% to 1.1%. That would make him 8th in polling where he was 12th before.

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