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What Impact Will President Trump Have on the Midterm Elections?

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    If there's one thing nearly everyone can agree on this midterm election, it's that this election is a referendum on Donald Trump. He may not be on the ballot, but it's a certainty that he's on the minds of everybody who casts a ballot in this election.

    In normal times, Donald Trump and the Republicans would be riding the booming economy across the finish line to victory, but these are not normal times and Donald Trump is not a normal President. Because of that, this election is in uncharted territory.

    Trump and the Republicans have chosen to make this election a "get out the base" effort instead of one where they try to attract swing voters. They appeared to have made the (most likely correct) calculation that the number of swing voters in these fractured times is minimal at best and the best strategy is to appeal to the base and hammer on red meat topics like immigration and crime.

    Democrats, remarkably, have run a uncharacteristically on-message campaign that focused on local and state specific issues, along with promising to be a check on the Trump Administration.

    Which strategy prevails is up to the voters, but one thing is for sure - Donald Trump looms large over this election.

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    I was thinking about this the last few days, about how the midterms might just boil down to simply - are you with Trump, or against him? If you are with him, vote R. Against, D.

    I know for a fact it's not as simple as that with every single race. That'd be impossible. Too many independent story lines for that to be the case.

    But if you could somehow zoom back enough and maybe once the dust settles, I think the prevailing motivation will be that a majority of Republican voters came out to vote for their Republican counterparts simply because Trump said to do so. And a vast majority of Democratic votes will be tallied because they hate Trump and want him and his party to lose as much power as possible.

    So while Trump may not 100% affect every voter's motivation for hitting the polls, I find it hard to imagine he doesn't affect in one way or another the majority of Americans. And that means he has a supremely profound effect on the midterms. I think it safely makes him still, just like he wants and for better and worse, the most impactful politician in the country.

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    If the 2016 election is any indication, Trump's strategy will win. Although, this isn't 2016. This isn't Trump or Hilary. So I actually expect the Democrats strategy to work in large pockets of the US. I think it will be largely situational.