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Midterm Elections - The US Political Report Card

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  • J.K.Logic
    2018-10-30 11:17:31 PM
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    Coming into the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican party has majority control of both the House and the Senate. Of course, that could change.

    If the Democrats can manage to net 23 seats in the House, of the 435 seats up for grabs (all of them), they will regain control of the House of Representatives. All Democrats need are 2 net wins in the Senate (of the 35 up for grabs this cycle), but that is currently being projected as a long shot.

    By net, I mean the Democrats would maintain all the seats they currently occupy, and then win over some more that are currently being occupied by Republicans.

    It's an interesting moment in politics when the midterms come around, as the results can speak really loudly and clearly as to how the country feels about the current administration's first 2 years in office, as well as the overall direction we all feel the country is headed, both with the economy at large, international relations, and all kinds of other social issues.

    You hear it being called a referendum on Trump. And that's true. But I believe it goes further than that. It's kinda like a mid season political report card, with lots of real world implications. If both the House and Senate stay red, it will be clear the majority, no matter how small, is in general acceptance of the current state of affairs.

    If one or two parts of congress flip blue, that will show the opposition was displeased enough to show up to the polls and force a changing of the guard.

    Happens all the time in the US really. Majority control flip flops constantly, and that can be seen as a good thing to my mind. An ongoing balance of power and agenda.

    I am really curious to see how the American people grade this first 2 years of the Trump administration, and how each state shows up to the polls.

    How do you think it'll play out? Do you think the current administration deserves to maintain control, or will the Democrats garner some power back?

  • JaredS
    2018-11-05 03:53:28 PM
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    I'm very hesitant to make any predictions after 2016, but I wouldn't be surprised if Democrats retake the House while still losing one or two seats in the Senate. In lesser followed, but potentially more important, Governors and state house races I wouldn't be remotely surprised if Democrats have a very good night.

    However, nothing surprises me in politics anymore and turnout will decide everything. Which side is more energized? We'll see in 24 hours.

  • bryce28
    2018-11-06 05:06:56 PM
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    JaredS Wrote:

    Which side is more energized? We'll see in 24 hours.

    Really does come down to simply that, I think as well. As divided as we are right down the middle, it's all about turnout.

    I really wonder if everyone eligible to vote in the country did, 100%, how divided would we really be?

  • JFoster
    2018-11-06 06:13:45 PM
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    bryce28 Wrote:

    I really wonder if everyone eligible to vote in the country did, 100%, how divided would we really be?

    Well, if that were to happen and there was unshakable proof that everyone did, we'd finally put to bed the age-old argument on if voting really matters. Thomas Jefferson supposedly said "We in America do not have government by the majority. We have government by the majority who participate."
  • PentagonWall
    2018-11-06 06:46:11 PM
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    bryce28 Wrote:
    JaredS Wrote:

    Which side is more energized? We'll see in 24 hours.

    Really does come down to simply that, I think as well. As divided as we are right down the middle, it's all about turnout.

    I really wonder if everyone eligible to vote in the country did, 100%, how divided would we really be?

    I'd be willing to bet quite a bit that if that vote took place, we would have an incredibly close 50/50 split. Obviously not exactly half, but super close. We're in a pretty bad state right now. I won't go all conspiracy here, but if there were powers out there that used ways to divide the U.S. over the past couple of decades, they really did a phenomenal job.

    And not only did they do an outstanding job at dividing us, but they really did a good job at making everyone's option both correct and incorrect at the exact same time. Meaning, side A has a debate with side B over a political topic. Side A absolutely refuses to actually listen and think about side B's argument, simple because it's "fake news". Even if they brought 100% facts, it doesn't matter anymore. Everyone is wrong.

  • J.K.Logic
    2018-11-06 11:21:22 PM
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    Yeah that's an interesting thought experiment.

    Well I think a lot more people showed out for this midterm than in years prior. And it seems the referendum or report card grade on how America feels about it's politics is still rather mixed.

    Republicans maintain Senate majority control, and gain a few seats while they were at it. So that's basically a shining endorsement. Though Democrats win back the House comfortably.

    I think you could look at it a few ways. One way I think is interesting is that there were over 400 House races, but only 36 Senate ones. Meaning if you just look at the sheer volume of wins, America graded Trump's admin fairly poorly, and we collectively wanted change. Or at least a check to current powers that be.

    If it's a letter grade, my guess is US politics over the last 2 years got a C+ tonight. Something like that. Passable, but wanting all over the place for improvement.

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