Forum Thread

What The Polls Are Saying About the 2016 Elections

Reply to ThreadDisplaying 3 Posts
  • Are you sure you want to delete this post?

    We are in the final stretch in the 2016 elections and pollsters are starting to release their final polls before election day.

    One thing that we need to know from the onset is that millions of people have already cast their ballots this year and we are expected to have roughly 20 million voters cast their ballots before November 8th. That's important to factor in when we start looking at these final numbers.

    Presidential Election: National polls have shown a tightening of the race, but we should pay far more attention to polls coming out from swing states because that is where the Presidential election is going to be won or lost. While national polls have shown a tightening of the race, swing state polls give Secretary Clinton the clear edge in the race to 270 Electoral College votes.

    Secretary Clinton has a clear advantage in Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Michigan while holding less clear advantage in Nevada and North Carolina.

    Donald Trump has a slight advantage in Florida, Ohio, and Iowa.

    If these polls are accurate then Secretary Clinton has a far clearer path to 270 than Mr. Trump. The reliably "blue" states have created a clear firewall for Clinton and she could lose one or two of the swing states leaning in her direction and still win the election. Mr. Trump would have to pick off two or three states leaning in Clinton's advantage if he were to have a statistically reliable chance to win.

    Senate Elections: The Democrats need a net gain of five seats (four if Secretary Clinton wins) to regain control of the Senate. Republicans come into November with a disadvantage from the get go because they are fighting to retain 24 of the 34 seats up for grabs. Many of these seats are considered "safe", but there are plenty of seats that could give the Democrats the majority.

    The main states to watch in the Senate are Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Hampshire, Illinois, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Missouri, and Nevada. The only state that is not currently held by a Republican is Nevada.

    Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Hampshire, Illinois, Nevada, and Wisconsin are the most likely to flip to the Democrats while North Carolina and Missouri are starting to look safer for the Republicans. If Democrats pick up five (or four with a Democratic President) of those six then they will hold the majority.

    House Elections: These are a lot harder to project due to the sheer number of them, so the best way to look at the House is the likelihood of the Democrats retaking control. If we look at it through that lens then Republicans should feel pretty good about their prospects.

    It's likely that Republicans will lose some seats, but their sizable majority should be enough of a buffer for them unless some unforeseen events shake up the race in the final week.

    This is where I'm seeing things as they are now. Am I missing something here or do you agree with where the race is standing based off the polling data we currently have?

  • Are you sure you want to delete this post?

    Yeah, appears to be pretty reliable polling here. I didn't think Trump would negatively effect Republicans from holding the House, as I think voters still vote down party lines for lesser known seats regardless. And even if many Republicans have become anti-Trump, it doesn't appear to have created too many anti-Republicans. I am most interested in the Senate majority race. Looks like a straight coin flip to me right now. I have a feeling that the Democrats will take majority lead this time around. That would give them 2/3. Solid, but still not quite good enough to make tons of change, without the House backing them for legislation passing.

  • Are you sure you want to delete this post?

    Look out, Trump is on the move. And what the universal pundits are now saying is that polls have severely underestimated the 'rural' voters. I'm not so sure about that. I think this is showing that polls are not nearly as representative of the whole as people would like to think they are.