Forum Thread

Bernie Sanders vs Hilary Clinton in a Contested Convention

Reply to ThreadDisplaying 2 Posts
  • Are you sure you want to delete this post?
        

    Wrote a thread already here about the chances of GOP contested convention to pick their nominee. But I honestly didn't consider posing the same question for the Democrats. I have just assumed the math never made sense for Sanders to push Clinton into the situation. I felt she had the delegates and popular vote enough to where it is inevitable.

    Now, I'm not entirely sure about that.

    It's still a long shot Bernie could make it to the contested convention AND convince all the necessary delegates, who already voted for Hilary, to then change their minds. Will be especially hard if Hilary has the popular vote won by that time as well.

    I can't see the party going against the will of the people's choice. Plus, it's no secret that the DNC wants Clinton as their nominee. They have been pretty clear about that from the start of this race.

    Even still, Sanders has a real path to contest. It is still very much mathematically possible. And if something changes, if Hilary slips, or if Bernie destroys her in California or something wild like that... Sanders can at least make the argument that delegates should consider him again, come July.

    Regardless of the math, Sanders main argument for continuing to run even in the face of very high odds is that he completely believes he has a better shot at beating Donald Trump than Hilary. Direct quote from Sanders:

    The evidence is extremely clear that I would be the stronger candidate to defeat Trump or any other Republican.


    What are the chances that Sanders pushes this to a contested convention? I give it a 60/40 at this point, slightly leaning toward him doing so.

    Then the question becomes: What are the chances he could win that convention? I think his chances are considerably low. But very interesting to me that they are not zero, like I have thought for months now.

  • Are you sure you want to delete this post?
        
    J.K.Logic Wrote:

    What are the chances that Sanders pushes this to a contested convention? I give it a 60/40 at this point, slightly leaning toward him doing so.

    20/80. He needs to sweep. Right now, he's trading primary punches. That's not going to cut it.