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Odds of a Republican Contested Convention happening?

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  • Are you sure you want to delete this post?

    The magic number is 1,237 delegates, to win the GOP Presidential nomination. And no one is there just yet. Trump is clearly the most likely to achieve this. But it's still uncertain if he will, in time for July's Republican convention.

    And if he does not, the convention (which usually officially introduces the nominee) will instead become what's called a contested convention, where all state's delegates get a re-vote, and they can freely vote for whoever they choose, no matter who they originally backed.

    All bets are literally off at that point. Candidates like Kasich, while right now currently hold zero chance of winning outright, could find themselves the nominee, if a certain tide were to roll his way.

    What do you think the odds are of a GOP contested convention happening?

    Currently the math says that the absolute earliest Trump can clinch a nomination win is by July 7th. And with the convention being held on July 18th, that will be cutting things very close. If he continues to dominate Republican polling, he will make it. But anything can happen; one wrong step in the press, and California of all states could turn on him. There are 172 delegates up for grabs in that state alone.

    NPR cites that "Trump needs just 42% of all remaining unallocated delegates" to win. And, if he sweeps Indiana, that % drops to just 36%. Seems that's in all likelihood going to happen.

  • Are you sure you want to delete this post?

    Well the "Never Trump" movement scored a huge victory today in forcing a full vote on the national convention rules, which could then be amended to allow delegates to vote for anyone they want to.

    It's far from certain that there are a majority of delegates who are willing to take the nomination away from Trump and hand it to someone else, but the vote itself is something Trump and the RNC have been desperately trying to avoid in an attempt to show party unity during the convention.

    Having a fight over who the nominee will be at a convention hasn't happened in a generation, but this election cycle has proven time and again to be like no other.