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Mayor Bloomberg Floating Independent Bid For President

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    Rumors have been swirling that former New York City Mayor and businessman Michael Bloomberg is seriously considering an Independent run for President this year, something that would throw a huge wrench into the already tumultuous primary season. Polls are mixed as to what his potential run could mean with some showing it would help the Republicans and others showing it would help the Democrats. No poll released has shown that he would be able to earn a plurality of the votes needed to win the election outright.

    The question then becomes which party will benefit the most from a Bloomberg run. I happen to think it would hurt the Democrats more than the Republicans. I believe this for many reasons, but mainly because Mr. Bloomberg has views that many moderates in the party agree with and he may very well be able to peel them away from the Democrats camp. Republicans are less ideologically aligned with Mr. Bloomberg, so I don't think he would be able to peel away as many of them.

    If I am right then that would virtually guarantee a Republican Presidency in November, but I would love to hear from anyone who disagrees with me and thinks Bloomberg's entrance would wind up hurting the Republicans chance of winning. I'm also interested to see if anyone thinks Bloomberg could actually win the Presidency outright and not play the spoiler after all.

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    I can see a way this could actually have America elect its first "Independent" President, but I would be shocked if all the pieces fell into place to make it happen.

    First and foremost--the two party system we have is pretty entrenched. Who would an Independent President go to in order to get legislation passed by Congress? Would an Independent President nominate "independent" judges to the Federal courts? And what other independent person would an independent politician have as their running mate?

    It's interesting that he is exploring a run, but if he jumps in then one of the two parties is likely going to be very upset on election day because he proved to be the spoiler.

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    JaredS Wrote:

    The question then becomes which party will benefit the most from a Bloomberg run. I happen to think it would hurt the Democrats more than the Republicans. I believe this for many reasons, but mainly because Mr. Bloomberg has views that many moderates in the party agree with and he may very well be able to peel them away from the Democrats camp. Republicans are less ideologically aligned with Mr. Bloomberg, so I don't think he would be able to peel away as many of them.

    I gotta agree. A good percentage of Dem votes won in election time I feel are simply voting AGAINST the GOP nominee. And interestingly, vice versa. A good amount of people just don't want the other side to win. And your logic that Bloomberg would garner more moderate dem voters over conservatives I think is spot on.

    Can he win? I think not. But wilder things have happened just months before elections become official. And with his bank role, resume, and name recognition, coupled with the fact that no candidate I think is being taken super seriously across the board as a legitimate choose (everyone is extremely polarized and mostly disheartened)... it cooouuuld happen.

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    J.K.Logic Wrote: Can he win? I think not. But wilder things have happened just months before elections become official. And with his bank role, resume, and name recognition, coupled with the fact that no candidate I think is being taken super seriously across the board as a legitimate choose (everyone is extremely polarized and mostly disheartened)... it cooouuuld happen.

    And I could get struck by lightning while I'm walking home, but I'm not betting on either!

    It's true that he has tons of money and name recognition, but the way our current electoral system is set up makes it virtually impossible for him to win. Hell--many states make it extremely difficult for someone that isn't a Democrat or Republican to even get on the ballot.

    There's no official Independent Party and there is no Independent convention. Bloomberg would have build up a huge ground operation to get his name on the ballot in all fifty states and would then have to convince a plurality of voters that he is better than the Republican or Democratic candidate.

    I'm a big fan of Michael Bloomberg, but I honestly don't see him pulling that off.

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    If Teddy Roosevelt couldn't mount a successful third party candidacy then I highly doubt Mayor Bloomberg can.

    There have been plenty of third party candidacies throughout our history, but not a single one has ever come close to winning an election. Roosevelt was able to earn the highest totals of a third party candidate by earning 27.5% of the vote and 88 electoral college electors. The next closest is John C. Breckinridge, a Southern Democrat who won 18.1% of the vote and 72 electoral college electors.

    What will likely happen if Bloomberg runs is a repeat of 2000, when Ralph Nader (likely) played spoiler to Vice President Al Gore. He received 2.7% of the vote and 0 electoral college electors, but there's a high probability that Al Gore would have won had Nader not run.