Democrats in six states will vote for a nominee on Tuesday, when more than 350 delegates are at stake. Joe Biden has been rising in the polls since his Super Tuesday surge — when he won 10 states, building on a decisive victory in South Carolina — but Bernie Sanders will compete in several states that handed him victories in 2016. National polls show Biden is now the race’s frontrunner, and he’s leading in the states voting Tuesday as well. With six states headed to the ballot box today,1 it’s once again time for FiveThirtyEight to freeze its forecast to see where things stand. Today’s contests are divided between those that former Vice President Joe Biden will almost certainly win (99 percent chance) and those where Sen. Bernie Sanders has a clearer chance. As the table below shows, Biden is a strong favorite to win four of the seven contests, including three of the four biggest delegate hauls: Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi, as well as North Dakota. But Biden is also a more modest favorite over Sanders in the other three contests — Washington, Idaho and Democrats Abroad — and there’s plenty of room for an upset victory from Sanders. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by a wide margin heading into the Tuesday contest in Michigan, according to a new poll from Monmouth University. The survey by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist gives the former New York mayor enough polls showing him over 10% nationally to be on stage for the next Democratic debate Wednesday in Nevada. As Iowa’s Democrats entered their party’s caucuses on Monday, defeating President Donald Trump in November’s election was at the top of their minds when considering which candidate to support for the party’s 2020 presidential nomination, according to preliminary findings by the National Election Pool (NEP). A poll of Iowa Democrats will not be released this year ahead of the caucuses after complaints that Pete Buttigieg was left off it. We find out why this poll matters. More than just the four early states will decide the 2020 Democratic primary. After all, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina only make up about 4 percent of the total delegates awarded, whereas the 16 states and territories1 that vote next on Super Tuesday contribute more than a third. But because these four states vote first, they play an outsized role in winnowing the candidate field and setting the course for the primary. Understanding the state of play in each contest is crucial to understanding where the nomination race stands and where it could go. The Iowa Caucuses are seven months away and most Democratic voters have not yet have settled on their preferred candidate for the party’s presidential nomination. Joe Biden’s message was clear. “We’ve got Jim Crow sneaking back in,” the former vice president warned at a rally in Columbia, South Carolina, soon after launching his 2020 Democratic presidential campaign. The last time Joe Biden ran for the Democratic presidential nomination, he barely registered in the Iowa caucuses, placing fifth behind Barack Obama, John Edwards, Hillary Clinton and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson with a 0.9 percent share of Iowans' support. New state polls released ahead of critical primaries on Tuesday find Donald Trump poised to deliver a knockout blow to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in his home state, while the Republican front-runner is tied with Ohio Gov. John Kasich on his turf. Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are neck and neck while the Republican frontrunner appears headed for a comfortable win in the Silver State, recent polls show. Donald Trump holds a broad 16-point lead among those likely to vote in South Carolina's Republican primary this Saturday, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton tops Bernie Sanders by 18 points in the state's Democratic primary, which will be held a week later. We talked earlier about where things stand among Iowa Republicans as Caucus Day arrives; now let’s take a look at Iowa Democrats. The Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, conducted by J. Ann Selzer, was released over the weekend, and it has the race shaping up this way: As Iowans prepare to cast the first votes in the presidential nominating process Monday, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders hoped to defy the polls and pull off upset victories in Monday night's caucuses. The final Des Moines Register poll was just released, showing Donald Trump leading the Republican field in Iowa with 28 percent, Ted Cruz with 23 percent and Marco Rubio with 15 percent. Hillary Clinton was ahead of Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, on the Democratic side. The political world — us included — was eagerly awaiting this survey, as Ann Selzer, who has conducted the Register’s polls since the 1988 caucuses, has a very good track record. But just how predictive of the final results have Selzer’s polls been? History suggests they’re a good indicator of what will happen in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, though there is room for a candidate or two to surprise. The final Iowa pre-caucus poll from the highly regarded Bloomberg/Des Moines Register/Selzer poll finds businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leading in their parties' contests. In the Republican caucus, Trump leads Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 28 percent to 23 percent. In the Democratic caucus, Clinton leads Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), 45 percent to 42 percent.
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