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Proposed Health Care Law (to replace Obamacare)

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    Called the 'American Health Care Act', some popular things remain, other don't. Here are some key points of the Republican's proposal to replace Obamacare that are being talking about most:

    1) Individual mandates go away
    2) You can stay on your parent's plan until 26 still
    3) Medicaid expansion goes basically unchanged until beginning of 2020
    4) Pre-existing conditions still cannot disqualify you from coverage

    This proposal is the early stages. They still haven't done the official math to see how much it costs, and how many folks it will actually cover. It also includes stiffer penalties for lapses in coverage, and proposed a much different route of giving out tax credits for health insurance, over the current subsidy method -

    What do you make of this proposal? Does it stand a chance of becoming law? Which parts do you think will be re-tooled before an official version makes it all the way to law is maybe a better question, as I doubt this first revision gets through completely untouched.. Trump has already said he is open to negotiation on the topic.

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    I just have a hard time adding up the numbers.

    One of the main reasons for the individual mandate is to help alleviate the costs that came about with forcing insurance companies to accept everyone regardless of preconditions. If healthy young people aren't forced to purchase insurance and insurance companies still have to accept everyone then no one should be surprised when the costs skyrocket for everyone who has insurance.

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    The Congressional Budget Office released their scorecard on this bill and it can very likely spell big trouble for its proponents. They predicted that 24 million Americans would lose their access to affordable health insurance in the next decade, 18 million of them in 2018 alone, if the bill were passed into law.

    I'd be shocked if Senate Republicans allow this to sail through after this report. The House may very well send it to them, but more than enough Republican Senators have expressed deep concerns about the bill that would make it nearly impossible to get through the upper chamber.

    Anything can happen, but I have a feeling the Senate is going to put the breaks on this and try to come up with their own bill that would get a better CBO score. The question then becomes if the House Republicans would be able to cobble together enough votes in their chamber to pass whatever the Senate sends them. And that's a big task concerning the various factions within the House GOP Caucus.

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    The House is set to vote on their repeal and replacement plan today and it's turning out to be quite a nail biter. There are currently 33 Republicans that have publicly said they are leaning towards a "no" vote and that is more than enough to sink the bill entirely. I have a feeling that Speaker Ryan will pull the bill from the floor if he doesn't think he has enough votes for passage. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
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    Update: Speaker Ryan has pulled the bill from the House floor after it became clear that he didn't have enough votes to get it through the House of Representatives.
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    This seems to be another do-or-die week for the AHCA. The Republicans offered an amendment to the original draft of the ACHA that was meant to placate more hard line conservatives, but it very well may wind up pushing more moderate Republicans away.

    The amendment, drafted by Rep. Tom MacArthur, would allow states to waive certain Obamacare regulations and come up with their own. This could lead to insurance companies being able to do away with the pre-existing condition requirement, which is a pillar to the current law.

    It's not clear whether the Republicans have the votes in the House, but even if they do pass this amended version then it will go to the Senate where passage is less than guaranteed.

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    To my surprise, the Republicans were able to squeak out passage of an amended version of the AHCA, but that was the easy part. The Senate will very likely write a dramatically different bill that may be hard for hard line conservatives in the House to vote for.

    I have been wrong before, but I wouldn't be surprised if this winds up being a lot more difficult than our Representatives and Senators thought.

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    It appears that there is a group of twelve Senators working on writing their own version of a healthcare bill that will likely look a lot different than the House version. The Senates rules are a lot different and whatever bill they come up with must be able to be passed using a budget tool called reconciliation that would enable the bill to pass with 51 instead of 60 votes.

    Anything can happen, but I have a feeling that this is going to be a lot more complicated than the Republican Party led many Americans to believe.

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    The Congressional Budget Office just released their score on the revised AHCA and it wasn't pretty. They project that 23 million Americans would lose health coverage if this bill were to become law. That makes it even more unlikely that the Senate will pass the House bill without major revisions.