2015 Governor and State Legislature Predictions

Fri Oct 30, 2015 18:00:07PM | Categories:
Phil Bryant speaking with a FEMA representative about Hurricane Katrina relief effortsBy: Mark Wolfe

The vast majority of states hold their elections for during Presidential or Midterm election years, but there are a few that hold their elections on odd years. Louisiana, and Mississippi voters will be voting for governor, statewide executive offices, and state legislatures. Kentucky will be voting for governor and statewide executive offices, but not for the state legislature. Virginia will be voting for both houses of their state legislature and New Jersey will be voting for their general assembly, but not the senate.

Governor Elections

Two of the three governor elections, Kentucky and Louisiana, won't have the incumbent Governor on the ballot due to term limits. The current governor of Mississippi is running for reelection.

Kentucky Governor Election: November 3, 2015

Kentucky is a genuine toss up, but the voters in the state tend to like divided government so Jack Conway, the current State Attorney General and Democratic nominee has the advantage in the race. He has led the polls, but a third party bid mounted by Independent Drew Curtis has prevented him from pulling too far ahead of the Republican nominee, Matt Bevin. Curtis may draw some support from people who would otherwise vote for Conway, but he won't likely play the spoiler in this election.

Prediction: Jack Conway narrowly wins.

Mississippi Governor Election: November 3, 2015

Mississippi is a solidly Republican state and sitting governor Phil Bryant has the overwhelming advantage in his contest against Robert Gray, a long distance truck driver with no prior political experience. Needless to say, Gray is facing monumental odds against him in his bid for the governorship.

Prediction: Phil Bryant wins in a landslide.

Louisiana Governor Election: November 21, 2015

Louisiana is also a solidly Republican state, but major questions still linger about Republican nominee David Vitter. Louisiana holds a "jungle" primary where all candidates are placed on the same ballot and voters can vote for any candidate, regardless of party affiliation. Democrat John Bel Edwards received 39.88% of the vote, but did not cross the fifty percent threshold that would have prevented a runoff election.

Prediction: David Vitter wins by a comfortable margin.

State Legislature Elections

Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia will be holding some type of state legislature elections in 2015.

Mississippi State Legislature Election: November 3, 2015

The Republicans currently hold large majorities in the state house and senate and that is not expected to change after election day.

Prediction: Republicans will retain control of both houses of the state legislature.

New Jersey General Assembly Election: November 3, 2015

The Democrats currently hold a large majority in the General Assembly and that is not expected to change after election day.

Prediction: Democrats will retain control of the General Assembly

Virginia State Legislature Election: November 3, 2015

The Virginia Senate is a real toss up. The state has been tilting Democratic in Presidential elections and by electing Terry McAuliffe as Governor, but the state house and senate are currently in Republican hands. The Democrats don't have much of a chance of winning the House of Helegates, but they do have a real chance of winning control of the state senate. It will be a close call though.

Prediction: Republicans will retain control of the House of Delegates; Democrats will take control of the state senate.

Louisiana State Legislature Election: November 21, 2015

The Republicans currently hold large majorities in the state house and senate and that is not expected to change after election day.

Prediction: Republicans will retain control of both houses of the state legislature.

2 Recommendations
You must be logged in to add a comment. You may signup for a free account to get started or login to your existing account.